A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the country and triggered disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the status quo. They authors two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
